Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
